All MO Sports · Football
District Seed Projections
How often each team lands at each seed when the rest of the regular season is simulated thousands of times, scored with MSHSAA’s district points formula.
Chance of each seed:
low
high
How the projections work
- Every remaining regular-season game in Missouri is simulated, not just district games, because opponents’ final records feed each team’s strength-of-schedule points.
- Each game’s expected margin comes from All MO Sports OVR ratings (the same model as the Matchup Predictor), with realistic game-to-game randomness added.
- Each simulated season is scored with MSHSAA’s district points formula: win/loss points, class bonus, capped point differential, and opponents’ records.
- Seed percentages are the share of simulations in which a team finished at that spot in its district. Teams are listed by average projected seed.
- “Now” is where a team ranks on current points with no more games played.