How Our Ratings Work

Every AllMOSports rating, ranking and prediction comes from the scores of games played. This page explains what the numbers mean and how to read them.

OVR, OFF and DEF

Each team gets three ratings, measured in points and compared with an average Missouri team. A rating of 0 means exactly average. Positive is better than average, negative is worse.

OFF (Offensive rating)

How many more points a team scores than an average team would against the same opponents. An OFF of +10 means the offense is worth about 10 points a game more than average.

DEF (Defensive rating)

How many fewer points a team allows than an average team would against the same opponents. Higher is better: a DEF of +10 means the defense holds opponents about 10 points below what they’d normally score.

OVR (Overall rating)

OFF plus DEF. This is the team’s total value in points compared with an average team, and it’s what our rankings are sorted by. A team with an OVR of +20 would be expected to beat an average team by about 20 points.

Predicted scores

Our predictors turn the ratings into a final score. Each team’s expected points are its offense against the other team’s defense, starting from the average score of a Missouri game (about 26 points in football):

For example, if Team A has an OFF of +30 and a DEF of +20, and Team B has an OFF of +25 and a DEF of +15:

Team	Math	Raw	Predicted
Team A	30 − 15 + 26	41	42
Team B	25 − 20 + 26	31	31

The last step rounds each score to the nearest realistic football score (a combination of touchdowns and field goals), so you’ll see scores like 42–31 rather than 41–31. If both teams round to the same number, the team with the better raw score is given the win.

Rankings

State rank (for example, #19 MO)

Where a team’s OVR ranks among every team in the state in that sport, across all classes.

Class rank (for example, #4 C5)

Where a team’s OVR ranks among teams in its own MSHSAA classification.

OFF and DEF rank

Where a team’s offense or defense ranks statewide on its own.

Rankings are based only on ratings, not on win-loss record. A team with more losses can rank higher if it played a much tougher schedule.

District Points

District Points are MSHSAA’s system for seeding football district brackets. They’re separate from our ratings. We calculate them the same way MSHSAA does, so you can see where your team stands before the official standings are released. A team’s total is the sum of four parts, each averaged over its games:

Part	How it’s earned
Game result	20 for a win, 15 for an overtime loss, 10 for a loss, 5 for a forfeit loss.
Class bonus	10 points for each class higher than your own that an opponent plays in.
Point margin	Your margin of victory or defeat, capped at 13 points either way.
Opponent strength	Based on your opponents’ combined records against everyone else.

Teams are seeded by total points. If two teams seeded next to each other played during the season, the head-to-head winner gets the higher seed.

Current District Points use only games already played. Projected District Points fill in the rest of the regular season with our predicted scores first, so they show where teams are likely to finish.

Common questions

Why is my team’s rating negative?

Ratings compare every team with the statewide average across all classes, so many smaller-school teams are rated below 0 even while they’re strong within their class. Class rank is the better way to compare a team with its own competition.

How often are ratings updated?

Ratings update as new scores come in during the season. Early-season ratings move more because there are fewer games to go on.

Why did my team drop after a win?

Ratings measure how well a team played compared with what was expected. A narrow win over a team it was predicted to beat easily, or an opponent’s rating dropping, can lower a rating even after a win.

Do other sports work the same way?

Yes. Every sport uses the same approach with its own scoring, so a basketball OFF is measured in basketball points.