Ninety-six teams are still alive in the 11-man playoffs, and Friday’s 48 district championship games on November 13 cut that field in half. District championships are on the line in all six classes, and the winners move on to the state quarterfinals.
Week 11 was messier than Round 1. Higher seeds won 74 of the 95 district semifinals played on the field, and an unbeaten 1 seed went home when Lawson knocked off Mid-Buchanan 19-18. Odds below are from the All MO Sports Playoff Hub (20,000 simulations, ratings through November 8).
Interesting facts: Week 11 by the numbers
Higher seeds won 74 of the 95 district semifinals played on the field (78%), and the model picked 79 winners (83%), matching its Round 1 rate.
One-point games: Springfield Catholic 29, Liberty (Mountain View) 28. Winfield 7, Normandy Collaborative 6. Rockhurst 33, North Kansas City 32. Plus the two above at Mid-Buchanan and Francis Howell.
Statewide storylines
- Title-odds movers. Thayer nearly doubled its Class 1 odds (11% to 21%) after a 54-0 win over Hayti, while Tipton with Bunceton slipped from 78% to 64%. Blue Springs jumped from 11% to 19% in Class 6 by beating defending champion Lee’s Summit 28-14. Helias Catholic rose from 14% to 21% in Class 5.
- The 6-5 4 seeds keep winning. Cardinal Ritter and Farmington entered the playoffs at 4-5. Both are now 6-5, and both are about 85% favorites on the road Friday. Vianney (4-7) is a 60% favorite at Sullivan, and Lift for Life (4-6) is an 88% favorite at unbeaten University City. The lower seed is favored in 15 of 48 district finals.
- Unbeatens on upset alert. Twelve teams are still unbeaten. Springfield Catholic (10-0) is just 12% against Fair Grove, and University City (10-0) is 12% against Lift for Life. Kearney (10-0) and Savannah (11-0) meet in the only unbeaten-vs.-unbeaten district final.
- Kearney is still the safest bet in the state. At 87% to win Class 4, no other team in any class is above 73%.
Class 6
State title favorite
Angle: Jackson is still the clear favorite at 57%, but the defending champion is gone. Blue Springs ended Lee's Summit's title defense 28-14 and climbed to 19%.
- Contenders: Blue Springs (19%), Raymore-Peculiar (8%), Liberty North (5%), Nixa (5%).
CBC also flipped the model's pick, beating De Smet Jesuit 38-28.
Rockhurst has won 10 of 14 meetings since 2010.
Class 5
State title favorites
Angle: Still the most open class in the state. Five teams sit between 15% and 21%, and two of them are 6-5 4 seeds who keep winning on the road.
- Contenders: Platte County (19%), Farmington (16%), Republic (15%). The defending champ, Platte County, beat Lincoln College Prep 49-7.
Both 4 seeds were favored. Republic held off Carthage 32-30, ending Carthage's season.
Neosho (10-1) at Republic (9-1). Republic has won 12 of 19 meetings since 2010.
Class 4
State title favorite
Angle: Two unbeatens, one district title. Kearney (10-0) hosts Savannah (11-0) in the only unbeaten-vs.-unbeaten district final in the state, and the winner is the overwhelming state favorite.
- Contenders: Savannah (9%), which beat Smithville 45-7. No one else is above 1%.
Sikeston also beat model favorite Hillsboro 15-10.
Kearney has won 6 of 7 meetings since 2010.
Class 3
State title favorite
Angle: The defending champion has to win at Cassville to keep its season going. Seneca and Cassville have split 21 meetings since 2010 almost evenly, 11-10 Cassville.
- Contenders: Cassville (11%, up from 6%), Maryville (6%), St. Pius X (Festus) (4%), Seneca (4%).
Seneca rolled past Nevada 44-12, and Pembroke Hill beat Oak Grove 33-10.
Also watch No. 3 Dexter at No. 1 Kennett, a coin flip at 52% Dexter.
Class 2
State title favorite
Angle: Class 2 lost an unbeaten 1 seed in Week 11 and could lose another Friday. Springfield Catholic survived Liberty 29-28 but is a 12% underdog at home against Fair Grove.
- Contenders: Blair Oaks (22%), Lamar (10-0, 15%), Centralia (10-0, 2%).
A true toss-up. Lafayette County has won all three meetings since 2010.
Class 1
State title favorite
Angle: The defending champ's grip loosened. Tipton with Bunceton fell from 78% to 64% as Thayer surged to 21% after shutting out Hayti 54-0.
- Contenders: Thayer (21%), Salisbury (10-0, 10%), Miller (2%).
Penney also beat Gallatin with Tri-County 40-32.
Marionville leads the series 14-8 since 2010.
Follow every district and the playoff odds all postseason on the All MO Sports Playoff Hub. Think we got a pick wrong? Test any matchup yourself in the Matchup Predictor. Next week: how our district championship picks did, and a preview of the state quarterfinals.
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