It’s that time of year again where we crown a champion in 6 classes for 11 man football here in Missouri. We have our usual mix of heavy favorites along with a couple of classes that are toss-ups.
Round 1 is in the books. Higher seeds won 81 of Friday’s 107 games, and our model picked the winner in 89 of them. Now the 1 seeds come off their byes for 96 district semifinals on Friday, November 6.
Kearney92%
St. Pius X (Kansas City)79%
Tipton with Bunceton78%
Valle Catholic66%
Jackson63%
Platte County21%Interesting facts: Round 1 by seed
Every 1 seed had a bye, so Round 1 was all 2-vs-7, 3-vs-6 and 4-vs-5. Here is how each matchup went Friday.
The 4-vs-5 games were as wild as expected: 5 seeds won 18 of 48, right in line with the pregame odds and the historical rate of about 67.7% for 4 seeds. The model favored the lower seed in 14 games, and the lower seed won 11 of them, including Hazelwood East’s 18-6 win at McCluer North in Class 5 District 3.
Statewide storylines
- Bracket Chalk: We projected only 14 upsets out of the 107 first round games, and higher seeds went on to win 81 of them. That shows a lot of chalk (and blowouts). It also shows the accuracy of the points calculator MSHSAA has had in place since the 2012 season.
- Defending champions: Kearney (92%) and Tipton with Bunceton (78%) are still the favorites to repeat. Platte County and Blair Oaks are both at 21%. Seneca beat Hollister 69-0 but sits at 3%. Lee’s Summit won 49-14 at Hickman and now visits Blue Springs (27% to win).
- Droughts. Class 3 favorite St. Pius X (Kansas City) is 79% to win its first title since 2002. Valle Catholic, with 15 titles, is 66% to end a seven-year drought in Class 2.
- Coin flips this Friday. The model favors the lower seed in 16 of 96 district semifinals. Eight are true toss-ups at 45–55%, including CBC vs. De Smet Jesuit in Class 6 and Union vs. Vianney in Class 4.
Class 6
State title favorite
Angle: Jackson, the No. 1 team in the state by OVR, is a clear favorite, while the defending champion starts their defense as a 5 seed.
Lee's Summit won 49-14 at Hickman in Round 1 and now visits 1 seed Blue Springs Friday (27% to win). They have had a great year but in an absolutely stacked district and Class 6 is just as loaded, if not more, than last year.
- Contenders: Blue Springs (11%), Raymore-Peculiar (7%), North Kansas City (6%), Nixa (5%).
- Toughest district: District 2 takes the cake here. 3 seed De Smet Jesuit (43%) and 2 seed CBC (36%) meet Friday, and both are likelier district champions than 1 seed Kirkwood (20%). District 7 is close behind: Raymore-Peculiar (49%), North Kansas City (37%) and Rockhurst (13%).
CBC has won 20 of 26 meetings since 2010, but the ratings lean De Smet this time.
Class 5
State title favorites
Angle: The most open class in the state. Four teams sit between 14% and 21% title odds, and two of them are 4 seeds who entered the playoffs with losing records and rolled in Round 1.
- Contenders: Farmington (4 seed, 19%), Helias Catholic (9-0, 14%, up from 8%), Republic (No. 1 in Class 5 by OVR, 10%, down from 15%).
- Toughest district: District 4. Ft. Zumwalt North (39%) and St. Dominic (38%) play a true coin flip Friday, with 1 seed Timberland (22%) waiting.
Carthage has won 18 of 20 meetings since 2010 and got here with a 10-7 win over Webb City.
Class 4
State title favorite
Angle: Kearney is the biggest favorite in any class at 92%, and its rating already tops every Class 4 champion since 2010.
- Contenders: Savannah (2 seed in Kearney's district, 10-0, 5%), which beat Excelsior Springs 72-12. No one else is above 1%.
- Toughest district: District 2. Sullivan (39%), Vianney (30%) and Union (27%) are still nearly even, and Vianney visits Union Friday.
Vianney won both meetings since 2010. Also watch No. 3 Hillsboro at No. 2 Sikeston: Hillsboro is 59% and has won all seven meetings since 2010.
Class 3
State title favorite
Angle: St. Pius X (Kansas City) is 79% to win its first title since 2002, and Class 3 delivered the most Round 1 upsets of any class with seven.
Seneca beat Hollister 69-0 and hosts Nevada Friday (95%), but still has to get past Cassville to win District 6 (42%).
- Contenders: Cassville (6%), Maryville (5%), St. Pius X (Festus) (4%), Seneca (3%).
- Toughest district: District 7. Pembroke Hill (1 seed, 44%), Boonville (3 seed, 26%) and Oak Grove (5 seed, 24%). District 6 is still a two-team race between Cassville (57%) and Seneca (42%).
Oak Grove has won all three meetings since 2010 and beat Center 38-6 last week.
Class 2
State title favorite
Angle: The dynasties meet. Valle Catholic (15 titles, none since 2019), Lamar (10 titles) and defending champ Blair Oaks (7 titles) are all 1 seeds, and Valle is the clear favorite.
- Contenders: Blair Oaks (21%), Lamar (9-0, 12%). Centralia and Mid-Buchanan, both 9-0, are at 1% or less.
- Toughest district: District 6. 2 seed Butler (52%) and 4 seed Lafayette County (44%) are the real contenders. Lafayette County is an 85% favorite at 1 seed Hogan Prep Friday.
Liberty has won all seven meetings since 2010.
Class 1
State title favorite
Angle: The defending champ is the heavy favorite again, and the class went almost entirely to form in Round 1.
Hayti, the highest-rated Class 1 champion since 2010, beat Malden 54-12 and visits 1 seed Thayer Friday.
- Contenders: Thayer (11%), Salisbury (9-0, 7%), Miller (2%).
- Toughest district: District 5. Carrollton (1 seed, 46%) hosts North Platte (5 seed, 34%) Friday at 58%, with Adrian (19%) on the other side.
A dead coin flip. Also watch No. 4 Marceline at No. 1 Scotland County: Marceline is 59% and has won all eight meetings since 2010.
Follow every district and the playoff odds all postseason on the All MO Sports Playoff Hub. Think we got a pick wrong? Test any matchup yourself in the Matchup Predictor. Next week: how our semifinal picks did, and a preview of every district championship game.
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